52-Week High Alert: Trading today’s movement in DONALDSON
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DCI was recently trading at $61.00 and has an implied volatility of 27.21% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for DCI expiring on 19-Feb-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $60.79-$64.39 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 13.64%.
52 week high: DONALDSON recently reached a new 52-week high at $61.33. DCI had traded in the range $31.08-$60.93 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if DCI maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $61.00 on 19-Feb-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if DONALDSON closes at or above $59.40 on 19-Feb-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 65.67% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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