52-Week High Alert: Trading today’s movement in FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
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FCX was recently trading at $23.18 and has an implied volatility of 48.05% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for FCX expiring on 15-Jan-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $23.18-$27.76 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 88.41%.
52 week high: FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC recently reached a new 52-week high at $23.25. FCX had traded in the range $4.82-$21.93 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if FCX maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $23.18 on 15-Jan-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC closes at or above $23.01 on 15-Jan-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 51.63% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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