52-Week High Alert: Trading today’s movement in FIVE BELOW INC
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FIVE was recently trading at $189.54 and has an implied volatility of 43.70% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for FIVE expiring on 19-Mar-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $189.58-$227.42 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 70.33%.
52 week high: FIVE BELOW INC recently reached a new 52-week high at $195.99. FIVE had traded in the range $47.53-$195.54 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if FIVE maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $189.54 on 19-Mar-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if FIVE BELOW INC closes at or above $188.50 on 19-Mar-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 51.25% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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