52-Week High Alert: Trading today’s movement in FAIR ISAAC
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FICO was recently trading at $485.31 and has an implied volatility of 33.08% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for FICO expiring on 15-Jan-2021, there is a 34.13% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $485.41-$550.75 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 49.28%.
52 week high: FAIR ISAAC recently reached a new 52-week high at $489.12. FICO had traded in the range $177.65-$481.60 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if FICO maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $485.31 on 15-Jan-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if FAIR ISAAC closes at or above $485.40 on 15-Jan-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.01% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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