Synthetic Long Discount Alert: SOCIAL CAPITAL HEDOSOPHIA HOLDINGS CORP II $IPOB trading at a 10.85% discount for the 21-May-2021 expiration
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IPOB was recently trading at $20.64 and has an implied volatility of 101.52% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for IPOB expiring on 21-May-2021, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $9.55-$44.76 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 44.06%.
Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the put position is opened at a strike of $21.00, which is already $0.36 in-the-money. However, its sale more than offsets this moneyness and the cost of the long call that the trade results in a net credit of of $2.60 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $2.24 per share over the underlying price of $20.64 for a 10.85% total.
Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.
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