Big Loser Alert: Trading today’s -10.9% move in HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC. COMMON STOCK
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HYFM was recently trading at $44.06 and has an implied volatility of 68.55% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for HYFM expiring on 15-Oct-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $36.05-$44.07 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 56.37%.
Big -10.85% Change: After closing the last trading session at $49.43, HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC. COMMON STOCK opened today at $48.74 and has reached a low of $43.34.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -10.85% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if HYFM maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $44.06 on 15-Oct-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC. COMMON STOCK closes at or below $44.30 on 15-Oct-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 51.04% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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