Big Gainer Alert: Trading today’s 7.1% move in PENN NATIONAL GAMING
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PENN was recently trading at $93.75 and has an implied volatility of 72.29% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for PENN expiring on 29-Jan-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $93.76-$111.66 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 86.29%.
Big 7.14% Change: After closing the last trading session at $87.50, PENN NATIONAL GAMING opened today at $87.95 and has reached a high of $94.20.
Trade approach: A movement as big as 7.14% is a significantly bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if PENN maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $93.75 on 29-Jan-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if PENN NATIONAL GAMING closes at or above $93.55 on 29-Jan-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.51% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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