52-Week High Alert: Trading today’s movement in NEW ORIENTAL
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EDU was recently trading at $154.54 and has an implied volatility of 42.61% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for EDU expiring on 16-Oct-2020, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $154.56-$174.78 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 51.35%.
52 week high: NEW ORIENTAL recently reached a new 52-week high at $157.15. EDU had traded in the range $102.01-$155.84 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if EDU maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $154.54 on 16-Oct-2020. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if NEW ORIENTAL closes at or above $154.30 on 16-Oct-2020. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.55% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
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